[Seuil critique de franchissement d’un coupe-feu : modèle mathématique et expériences de feu]
Firebreaks are commonly used to limit the spread of wildfires towards sensitive areas. However, the risk of extreme fires increases the likelihood that suppression capacities will be exceeded. This study proposes an effective design framework for firebreaks, based on the estimation of the probability of crossing as a function of fire behaviour and weather conditions. A risk matrix is established to support decisions. The probability of crossing is calculated using logistic regression, with data from several bushfire experiments. The results show that a probability greater than 35% indicates a high risk of crossing, while a probability less than 25% indicates a moderate risk. Above 45%, the risk becomes severe. By estimating the risks, we can improve the design and maintenance of firebreaks to make them safer and more effective.
Les coupe-feux sont couramment utilisés pour limiter la progression des feux de végétation vers des zones sensibles. Cependant, le risque de feux extrêmes augmente les chances de dépassement des capacités de suppression. Cette étude propose un cadre de conception efficace pour les coupe-feux, basé sur l’estimation de la probabilité de franchissement en fonction du comportement du feu et des conditions météorologiques. Une matrice de risque est établie pour soutenir les décisions. La probabilité de franchissement est calculée via une régression logistique, avec des données provenant de plusieurs expériences de feu brousse. Les résultats montrent qu’une probabilité supérieure à 35 % indique un risque élevé de franchissement, tandis qu’une probabilité inférieure à 25 % indique un risque modéré. Au-delà de 45 %, le risque devient très élevé. L’estimation des risques permet d’améliorer la conception et l’entretien des coupe-feux pour les rendre plus efficaces et sûrs.
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Mots-clés : Seuil de probabilité critique, Probabilité de franchissement, Expériences de feu de brousse, Coupe-feu, Régression logistique, Matrice de risque
Akahoua David Vincent Brou 1 ; Tionhonkélé Drissa Soro 2 ; Kouassi Kouassi Serge Yanga 3
CC-BY 4.0
@article{CRMECA_2025__353_G1_673_0,
author = {Akahoua David Vincent Brou and Tionhonk\'el\'e Drissa Soro and Kouassi Kouassi Serge Yanga},
title = {Critical threshold for crossing a firebreak: mathematical model and fire experiments},
journal = {Comptes Rendus. M\'ecanique},
pages = {673--686},
publisher = {Acad\'emie des sciences, Paris},
volume = {353},
year = {2025},
doi = {10.5802/crmeca.299},
language = {en},
}
TY - JOUR AU - Akahoua David Vincent Brou AU - Tionhonkélé Drissa Soro AU - Kouassi Kouassi Serge Yanga TI - Critical threshold for crossing a firebreak: mathematical model and fire experiments JO - Comptes Rendus. Mécanique PY - 2025 SP - 673 EP - 686 VL - 353 PB - Académie des sciences, Paris DO - 10.5802/crmeca.299 LA - en ID - CRMECA_2025__353_G1_673_0 ER -
%0 Journal Article %A Akahoua David Vincent Brou %A Tionhonkélé Drissa Soro %A Kouassi Kouassi Serge Yanga %T Critical threshold for crossing a firebreak: mathematical model and fire experiments %J Comptes Rendus. Mécanique %D 2025 %P 673-686 %V 353 %I Académie des sciences, Paris %R 10.5802/crmeca.299 %G en %F CRMECA_2025__353_G1_673_0
Akahoua David Vincent Brou; Tionhonkélé Drissa Soro; Kouassi Kouassi Serge Yanga. Critical threshold for crossing a firebreak: mathematical model and fire experiments. Comptes Rendus. Mécanique, Volume 353 (2025), pp. 673-686. doi : 10.5802/crmeca.299. https://comptes-rendus.academie-sciences.fr/mecanique/articles/10.5802/crmeca.299/
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