Malaria is a local disease with global impact. The fitness of vector-borne Plasmodium parasites, the causative agents of malaria, is closely linked to the ecology and evolution of its mosquito vector. Ongoing adaptive radiation and introgression diversify mosquito populations in Africa. However, whether the genetic structure of vector populations impacts malaria transmission remains unknown.

We discuss below new approaches that gauge the contribution of mosquito species to Plasmodium abundance in nature, with a particular focus on time-series analyses in the context of population genetics and epidemiology [1]. Our data highlighted the importance of focusing vector control strategies on mosquito species that drive malaria dynamics.

Using time-series collections and the econometric approach Granger causality, we demonstrated that the abundance of Plasmodium-infected mosquitoes in a field site in Mali was driven by only one of the two sympatric vectors (Fig. 1). This mosquito species carried a susceptible allele of the known antiparasitic gene TEP1 [2,3], and until now it was resistant to colonization efforts and, therefore, is not the target of current gene drive applications.

Extending such studies to other key components of vectorial capacity and epidemiological and parasitological surveys should ultimately identify patterns, tipping points, and general laws that describe dynamics, emergence, and resurgence of mosquito-borne diseases.