Comptes Rendus
no. 10
A novel method based on maximum likelihood estimation for the construction of seismic fragility curves using numerical simulations
Cong-Thuat Dang1 ; Thien-Phu Le2  ; Pascal Ray3
1 The University of Danang – University of Science and Technology, 54 Nguyen Luong Bang, Danang, Viet Nam
2 LMEE, Université d'Évry Val-d'Essonne, 40, rue du Pelvoux, 91020 Évry cedex, France
3 École nationale supérieure des mines de Saint-Étienne, 158, cours Fauriel, 42023 Saint-Étienne cedex 02, France
Comptes Rendus. Mécanique, Volume 345 (2017) no. 10, pp. 678-689.

Seismic fragility curves presenting some probability of failure or of a damage state exceedance versus seismic intensity can be established by engineering judgment, empirical or numerical approaches. This paper focuses on the latter issue. In recent studies, three popular methods based on numerical simulations, comprising scaled seismic intensity, maximum likelihood estimation and probabilistic seismic demand/capacity models, have been studied and compared. The results obtained show that the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is in general better than other ones. However, previous publications also indicated the dependence of the MLE method on the ground excitation input. The objective of this paper is thus to propose a novel method improving the existing MLE one. Improvements are based on probabilistic ground motion information, which is taken into account in the proposed procedure. The validity of this new approach is verified by analytical tests and numerical examples.

Reçu le :
Accepté le :
Publié le :
DOI : 10.1016/j.crme.2017.06.011
Mots clés : Seismic fragility curve, Numerical simulation, Maximum likelihood estimation, Log normal probability law, Peak ground acceleration, Damage state
Cong-Thuat Dang 1 ; Thien-Phu Le 2 ; Pascal Ray 3

1 The University of Danang – University of Science and Technology, 54 Nguyen Luong Bang, Danang, Viet Nam
2 LMEE, Université d'Évry Val-d'Essonne, 40, rue du Pelvoux, 91020 Évry cedex, France
3 École nationale supérieure des mines de Saint-Étienne, 158, cours Fauriel, 42023 Saint-Étienne cedex 02, France 
@article{CRMECA_2017__345_10_678_0,
     author = {Cong-Thuat Dang and Thien-Phu Le and Pascal Ray},
     title = {A novel method based on maximum likelihood estimation for the construction of seismic fragility curves using numerical simulations},
     journal = {Comptes Rendus. M\'ecanique},
     pages = {678--689},
     publisher = {Elsevier},
     volume = {345},
     number = {10},
     year = {2017},
     doi = {10.1016/j.crme.2017.06.011},
     language = {en},
}
TY  - JOUR
AU  - Cong-Thuat Dang
AU  - Thien-Phu Le
AU  - Pascal Ray
TI  - A novel method based on maximum likelihood estimation for the construction of seismic fragility curves using numerical simulations
JO  - Comptes Rendus. Mécanique
PY  - 2017
SP  - 678
EP  - 689
VL  - 345
IS  - 10
PB  - Elsevier
DO  - 10.1016/j.crme.2017.06.011
LA  - en
ID  - CRMECA_2017__345_10_678_0
ER  - 
%0 Journal Article
%A Cong-Thuat Dang
%A Thien-Phu Le
%A Pascal Ray
%T A novel method based on maximum likelihood estimation for the construction of seismic fragility curves using numerical simulations
%J Comptes Rendus. Mécanique
%D 2017
%P 678-689
%V 345
%N 10
%I Elsevier
%R 10.1016/j.crme.2017.06.011
%G en
%F CRMECA_2017__345_10_678_0
Cong-Thuat Dang; Thien-Phu Le; Pascal Ray. A novel method based on maximum likelihood estimation for the construction of seismic fragility curves using numerical simulations. Comptes Rendus. Mécanique, Volume 345 (2017) no. 10, pp. 678-689. doi : 10.1016/j.crme.2017.06.011. https://comptes-rendus.academie-sciences.fr/mecanique/articles/10.1016/j.crme.2017.06.011/

[1] B.R. Ellingwood Validation studies of seismic PRAs, Nucl. Eng. Des., Volume 123 (1990), pp. 189-196

[2] R.P. Kennedy; C.A. Cornell; R.D. Campbell; S. Kaplan; H.F. Perla Probabilistic seismic safety study of an existing nuclear power plant, Nucl. Eng. Des., Volume 59 (1980) no. 2, pp. 315-338

[3] Y.J. Park; A.H.S. Ang; Y.K. Wen Seismic damage analysis of reinforced concrete buildings, J. Struct. Eng., Volume 111 (1985) no. 4, pp. 740-757

[4] B.R. Ellingwood Earthquake risk assessment of building structures, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., Volume 74 (2001) no. 3, pp. 251-262

[5] K.R. Karim; F. Yamazaki Effect of earthquake ground motions on fragility curves of highway bridge piers based on numerical simulation, Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dyn., Volume 30 (2001) no. 12, pp. 1839-1856

[6] K.R. Karim; F. Yamazaki A simplified method of constructing fragility curves for highway bridges, Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dyn., Volume 32 (2003) no. 10, pp. 1603-1626

[7] S.H. Kim; M. Shinozuka Development of fragility curves of bridges retrofitted by column jacketing, Probab. Eng. Mech., Volume 19 (2004) no. 1–2, pp. 105-112

[8] K.R. Karim; F. Yamazaki Effect of isolation on fragility curves of highway bridges based on simplified approach, Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., Volume 27 (2007), pp. 414-426

[9] J.E. Padgett; R. DesRoches Methodology for the development of analytical fragility curves for retrofitted bridges, Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dyn., Volume 37 (2008) no. 8, pp. 1157-1174

[10] D.H. Tavares; J.E. Padgett; P. Paultre Fragility curves of typical as-built highway bridges in Eastern Canada, Eng. Struct., Volume 40 (2012), pp. 107-118

[11] K. Ramanathan; J.E. Padgett; R. DesRoches Temporal evolution of seismic fragility curves for concrete box-girder bridges in California, Eng. Struct., Volume 97 (2015), pp. 1-12

[12] C. Zhou; X. Zeng; Q. Pan; B. Liu Seismic fragility assessment of a tall reinforced concrete chimney, Struct. Des. Tall Spec. Build., Volume 24 (2015), pp. 440-460

[13] B.S. Ju; A. Gupta Seismic fragility of threaded tee-joint connections in piping systems, Int. J. Press. Vessels Piping, Volume 132–133 (2015), pp. 106-118

[14] S.A. Argyroudis; K.D. Pitilakis Seismic fragility curves of shallow tunnels in alluvial deposits, Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., Volume 35 (2012), pp. 1-12

[15] S. Argyroudis; A.M. Kaynia Analytical seismic fragility functions for highway and railway embankments and cuts, Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dyn., Volume 44 (2015), pp. 1863-1879

[16] T.K. Mandal; N.N. Pujari; S. Ghosh A comparative study of seismic fragility estimates using different numerical methods, 4th ECCOMAS Thematic Conference on Computational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 2013

[17] T.K. Mandal; S. Ghosh; N.N. Pujari Seismic fragility analysis of a typical Indian PHWR containment: comparison of fragility models, Struct. Saf., Volume 58 (2016), pp. 11-19

[18] D. Lallemant; A. Kiremidjian; H. Burton Statistical procedures for developing earthquake damage fragility curves, Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dyn., Volume 44 (2015), pp. 1373-1389

[19] M. Grigoriu To scale or not to scale seismic ground-acceleration records, J. Eng. Mech., Volume 137 (2010) no. 4, p. 284

[20] C.-T. Dang Méthodes de construction des courbes de fragilité sismique par simulations numériques, Université Blaise Pascal, Clermont II, 2014 (in French), PhD thesis

[21] T.-P. Le; C.-T. Dang; P. Ray A comparative study of construction methods for seismic fragility curves using numerical simulations, Mech. Ind., Volume 17 (2016) no. 602

[22] D.M. Boore Simulation of ground motion using the stochastic method, Pure Appl. Geophys., Volume 160 ( March 2003 ) no. 3, pp. 635-676

[23] I. Zentner Numerical computation of fragility curves for NPP equipment, Nucl. Eng. Des., Volume 240 (2010) no. 6, pp. 1614-1621

[24] P. Gehl; J. Douglas; D. Seyedi Influence of the number of dynamic analyses on the accuracy of structural response estimates, Earthq. Spectra, Volume 31 (2015) no. 1, pp. 97-113 | DOI

[25] M. Shinozuka; M. Feng; H. Kim; S. Kim Nonlinear static procedure for fragility curve development, J. Eng. Mech., Volume 126 (2000) no. 12, pp. 1287-1295

[26] M. Shinozuka; M. Feng; J. Lee; T. Naganuma Statistical analysis of fragility curves, J. Eng. Mech., Volume 126 (2000) no. 12, pp. 1224-1231

[27] M. Shinozuka; S.H. Kim; S. Kushiyama; J.H. Yi Fragility curves of concrete bridges retrofitted by column jacketing, Earthq. Eng. Eng. Vib., Volume 1 (2002) no. 2, pp. 195-205

[28] D.M. Boore, SMSIM Fortran programs for simulating ground motions from earthquakes, U.S. Geological Survey, 2005.

[29] MATLAB, version 7.9.0529 (R2009b), The MathWorks Inc., Natick, Massachusetts, 2009.

[30] D.M. Boore; W.B. Joyner Site amplifications for generic rock sites, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., Volume 87 (1977), pp. 327-341

[31] C. Kafali; M. Grigoriu Seismic fragility analysis: application to simple linear and nonlinear systems, Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dyn., Volume 36 (2007), pp. 1885-1900

Cité par Sources :

Commentaires - Politique

Ces articles pourraient vous intéresser

Methodology for updating magnitudes assigned to historical earthquakes: application to the La Tour-du-Pin 1889 earthquake

Alessandro Stocchi; Cédric Giry; Irmela Zentner; ...

C. R. Géos (2021)

Organic Glass-Forming Liquids and the Concept of Fragility

Christiane Alba-Simionesco

C. R. Phys (2023)

Differentiation of Fanconi anemia and aplastic anemia using mitomycin C test in Tunisia

Faten Talmoudi; Olfa Kilani; Wiem Ayed; ...

C. R. Biol (2013)